Minoan Group PLC

Contrarian voices are dismissed as Trolls

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By Mike Caine | 13 April 2025

Before I discuss the Minoan Group, I want to share a conversation with Elric in which I am not fully appraised of the details, presumably to protect a specific party.

Elric was approached—what can only be described as an attempt to ‘ramp’ Minoan’s shares—for the benefit of parties offering inducements in the form of shares. In plain terms, a transparent effort to manipulate sentiment and inflate Minoan’s valuation for private gain.

The origins of this approach remain murky, and to be absolutely clear, we make no accusation that Minoan itself was involved—despite the insinuations made by Tom Winnifrith in a recent Bearcast, which veered into the realms of the irresponsible.

One might argue that even Elric wouldn’t be foolish enough to accept a parcel of free Minoan shares outright. Regardless, he made it clear that no potential personal advantage was worth jeopardising the financial wellbeing of our readers.

In the long and winding tale of the Minoan, I see not just a failed investment but a parable—one I hope lingers in the minds of shareholders long after the final share has changed hands. As a long-term detractor and former shareholder, I offer this not in bitterness but in the spirit of candour. I have watched, year after year, as hopeful sentiment was peddled, truth was sidelined, and critical thought was drowned out by groupthink and the unrelenting optimism of the faithful.

To challenge the prevailing mood is, in some quarters, to invite scorn. Contrarian voices are dismissed as "trolls," even when they present verifiable facts, historical data, and clear-eyed analysis. The bull case for Minoan has always been heavy on narrative and light on delivery. And yet, in an era where truth is often treated as an inconvenience rather than a foundation, it's no surprise that a chorus of hope shouts down uncomfortable voices.

But the numbers do not lie.

From a share price of 87p in 2007 to just 0.55p by 2025—a 99.37% fall. A staggering 810% increase in the number of shares in issue, yet a 94% collapse in market capitalisation. A shareholder who stayed the course without constant reinvestment has seen their stake reduced to barely a sliver of its original value. And all this was under a board that, year after year, assured investors of imminent breakthroughs, transformational phases, and rewarding periods.

What have we really seen? Words, plenty of them. Results, very few.

The Crete resort project, so often framed as the crown jewel of the company’s portfolio, has become the eternal promise—fully consented, perpetually pending, always ‘on the cusp’ of monetisation. Headlines touting “strategic partnerships” and “advanced discussions” briefly flicker some life into the share price, but these rallies fade just as fast, leaving shareholders clutching at optimism rather than outcomes.

This is not a story unique to Minoan, but Minoan exemplifies it with unusual clarity. A company that has issued statement after statement, spoken of ‘value creation’ while presiding over value destruction, and relied too heavily on the hope of the small retail investor to keep the flame alive.

A number of ‘red flags’ are summarised below. The long record of RNS wordings is attached at the end of this article. These were ignored or batted away by then current investors who, seeking confirmation bias, insisted that ‘this time it really is different’ (for the 5^th time!)

In its earlier days the statutory RNS’ from the Company were populated with words and phrases that the average investor were ignorant of. This caused humour and conversation whilst emphasis should have been placed on the performance and actions of the Company.

• Following on from the above the regular use of phrases such as ‘around the corner’ and ‘on the horizon’ with no definitive time scales given, obviously, for a reason. Using the word ‘imminent’ distracted me from near-term time frames, which also never materialised. Investors should always take this word cautiously, and you can guarantee that even genuine use of the word will never match the timescales that investors expect. Aminex (AEX: AIM) holds the world record, I believe, where it took over two years until the said event actually happened. The cash flows never did, though! Our own OptiBiotix is now at 14 months and counting for the launch of 2nd generation products, SweetBiotix.

• Beware the Bulletin Board ‘expert’ who ignores, filters and/or abuses any opposing views (Yorgi) while creating an echo chamber and hiding his agenda.

• The appointment of a Director or advisor that causes euphoria, yet when they resign without a whimper, it is ignored.

• A down trend. Statistics tell you that most downtrends continue in the same direction from year to year. Use that simple fact to your advantage.

• RNS is full of promises, but the following updates make no reference to the previous, a sure sign of hidden failure.

• High Director remuneration

• In Minoan’s case, they have a long trading history but zero returns to shareholders, coupled with high remuneration as above

• Insider dealing. In this case, the sale of a division to a Director, with no benefit to shareholders

• Lack of Director share purchases

• Beware of Directors partaking in fund raises, which are well covered by Director remuneration!

• The same auditor and advisors. Why?

• To those still holding out for a turnaround—pause. Strip away the narrative and look at the record. The market has not been wrong for 18 years. The issue here isn’t unseen potential but chronic underachievement.

And to those who dismiss scepticism as cynicism, I ask this: what, precisely, has been delivered? Not planned. Not envisioned. Delivered.

The tragedy of Minoan isn’t just the capital lost. It’s the lesson unlearned. We now live in a climate where critical thinking is often viewed as antagonism and where the sober voice is mistaken for malice.

Long gone are the days when two opposing views could be discussed in a respectful manner, like those that Elric and I had before I bought OptiBiotix. I was a sceptic years ago. We would spar almost daily, but it was always with mutual respect. We are not good friends, despite my investment in OptiBiotix. I am sure I will get my revenge one day.

Investing demands clarity, not comfort. And those who cling to belief in the face of clear evidence do so at their peril.

Let Minoan serve as a monument—not to ambition, but to accountability. Not to narrative, but to numbers. I’ve said my piece before and been jeered for it. But the outcome has, regrettably, vindicated every concern.

My hope now is that those who read this with an open mind will remember Minoan not as a tragedy they were swept up in, but as a lesson to be taken forward.

Because in the end, truth is the only power investors truly have.

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No Historical Revision Here:

2/5/2007 Share price 87p Shares in Issue 102,042,639

30/7/2013 The coming year promises to be the most significant and transformational in the Group’s history.” Share price approx. 6.2p

1/4/2014 look forward to reporting to shareholders on further significant progress in all areas of the Group’s business over the next twelve months 10.2p

31/7/14 I look forward to reporting to shareholders on further significant progress in all areas of the Group’s business in the next few months. 11.9p

30/3/15 The coming months promise to be very exciting for the Group, 12.9p

31/7/15 I expect to be able to update shareholders with positive news. 9.8p

30/3/16 The next year is destined to be the most exciting and fruitful for the Group, its shareholders, Directors and staff, and I look forward to making further announcements in the future. 8.8p

14/7/16 While there are momentous events over which we have no control, we have never been closer to fulfilling our substantial potential. 7.1p

31/3/17 The next year is destined to be the most value enhancing in the Group’s history, and I look forward to making further announcements in the future. 11.6p

26/7/17 The forthcoming year looks set to be a transformational period for the Group 8.9p

14/12/17, the Board has carried out a review of the Group's operations and it believes that we are now entering a period that will be key to delivering shareholder value 7.2p

6/4/18, the Company’s share price performance has not fully reflected this achievement....what I believe will be very welcome news over the coming months. In July last year, I said that the next twelve months were likely to be the most rewarding in the Company's history. I remain convinced that we are in the most rewarding period in the Company's history and that 2018 will see major developments 5.9p

31/7/18 approaching a very rewarding period in the Company’s history and that the latter part of 2018 will see major developments.....pending what I believe will be very welcome news over the coming months. 5p

20/9/18 The company remains hopeful that the next twelve months should see significant progress toward monetising the Project. 4.25p

8/10/18 Minoan's project in Crete is the only large scale project that has been fully consented through a Presidential Decree which, in the light of the ever growing market demand for top quality leisure accommodation in Greece, is significant and bodes well for the future of the Project and its value to the Company as well as to prospective investors and partners. 3.35p

8/4/2019 We are hopeful that 2019 will finally witness the commencement of the realisation of the value of our Crete project...I and my colleagues believe that 2019 will finally witness the beginning of monetisation of the Group's interest in the Project and hope that the market value of the Group begins to reflect that of its assets as further news of JVs and other transactions materialises...... the Group can disclose that it has recently received an early stage written approach that, if it were to progress,... The discussions around value indicate that, if completed in line with those discussions, a figure would be realised at an indicative value which the Board believe that shareholders would find attractive. The Team's initial work is now largely complete and some of the designs will be incorporated into the Minoan Group website in the near future so that shareholders have a better view of their Company's Project.

Shareholders should also be aware that we are already beginning to see the benefits of the appointment of such a Team and the substantial increase in credibility which it brings to the Project. 1.9p

24/4/19 The Directors believe that the demonstrable strengthening of the balance sheet, the increased stability, and the reduction in liabilities arising from the Proposals, taken together with the measures outlined in the Chairman's statement accompanying the Report and Financial Statements, will greatly assist the Group in its ongoing discussions and negotiations with third parties. 2.4p

31/7/19 The new Government and the active encouragement of investment it has proposed allow my colleagues and I to have real confidence that we will be able to achieve our ambitions in the foreseeable future. 2.15p

29/04/2020 The directors appreciate shareholders' patience in these matters and reiterate that they do not feel the current situation in any way lessens the potential of the Project. If anything, its flexibility, location and size make it highly adaptable to changing needs. 0.825p

17/8/20 We look forward to updating shareholders in the coming period as we progress discussions with partners and prospective partners toward beneficial conclusions. 1.3p

22/3/21 We are also progressing a number of further studies, such as the survey of flora and fauna, that are necessary in order to speed up the process of completing all the detailed permissions necessary to ensure a quick start once partners have been selected. 1.25p

30/4/21 I am pleased to be able to say that I believe that I will be able to update shareholders on progress on all the major issues more frequently over the coming weeks and months. 1.3p

29/7/21, taken together with the current favourable investment environment in Greece and our strong focus on commercialisation, means we expect to provide updates more frequently over the next months. 1.2p

28/4/22 My team and I are very satisfied with the progress made and the potential
returns of the Project. We are now engaged in the process of discussing the
next stages of the Project with the Foundation. 1.3p

29/7/22 The pace of the discussions themselves has accelerated in the last months and once they are concluded, I expect the Project to move forward at some pace. 1.15p

6/4/23 remains in active discussions concerning the Company's secured debt with DAGG LLP and expects to conclude these in the coming weeks. the Company's discussions on amendments to the contract between Minoan's wholly subsidiary Loyalward Limited and the Foundation (the "Contract"), although taking longer than hoped for, are progressing. 0.88p

28/4/23 The Company is now able to move forward with more certainty and we will continue our discussions with the Foundation while focusing on the Project commercialisation. 1p

31/7/23 George Mergos and I very much look forward to updating Shareholders with progress in the near future. 0.98p

10/11/23: The Company can report that in recent weeks, it has had a number of discussions regarding third parties taking meaningful interests in the Project. These discussions are being actively pursued and, if successful, the Company will make the appropriate announcements in due course. 0.68p

5/01/24 The Board expects that the grant of Epifania in due course will add further material upside to what is already a very attractive financial proposition for all parties....It is important for all external stakeholders as well as shareholders that the Project is commenced as soon as practicable and the Board believes that progressing the Project on this basis will achieve that objective. 0.65p

31/7/2024 I expect to be able to inform Shareholders in the near future on this and a number of other matters, notably the ongoing discussions with prospective development and other partners........prepare the Company for the change in gear that will be necessary as soon as the updated Contract is complete. Discussions on this are progressing well and I expect them to reach a conclusion in the very near term.....
A number of these discussions are at an advanced stage. I look forward to updating Shareholders on further progress as we conclude the various ongoing discussions. 0.63p

2/10/2024 The Board is expecting to be able to update shareholders shortly on significant commercial progress and on our detailed negotiations 0.53p

01/11/2024 The Company is pleased to report that it is now in advanced discussions with a strategic partner to provide significant new funding into the Company. 0.78p

06/01/2025 The Company is in discussions with the providers of its only secured debt, which expired on 31 December 2024, and expects to update shareholders in the near future. In addition, the discussions with a strategic partner announced in November 2024 continue in a positive manner and the Company expects to be able to provide a further update during the first quarter of 2025. 0.55p

04/04/2025 Due to insufficient funds, the Company cannot finalise the audit of its annual report and accounts...However, as the Company cannot meet its financial obligations,...DAGG Proposal: The board notes that the issuance of Company equity to DAGG as contemplated by the Proposal would be significantly dilutive for shareholders. Likely Suspension of Trading.

THE END. And still they believed! 0.13p


Shares in Issue 929,220,000 =Dilution of 810%

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