Ceres Power: A Slow Burn or Just Burning Out?
FY 31 December 2024: A Cautionary Tale in Clean Tech Ambition
By Alex Langton & Elric Langton | 21 March 2025
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Itβs been a bruising few months for investors in Ceres Power. Since peaking feature price at 201p, the share price has sunk like a stone in a rain barrel, closing today at a dismal 66.32p β a collapse of over 67%. We are sorry, of course, but this type of volatility is expected with early-stage disruptors. The turning point? Arguably, when Bosch turned Welsh on them, pulling the plug on a cornerstone relationship that had underpinned much of the companyβs narrative of scalable growth.
Yet, to declare Ceres merely a victim of circumstance would do injustice to its operational achievements β and miss the slow-burn drama of a company striving for relevance in a volatile green tech market.
Record Numbers in a Sector on Life Support
To give credit where itβs due, 2024 was, by several metrics, a record year for Ceres. Revenue more than doubled to Β£51.9 million, powered by licensing deals with big hitters like Delta Electronics and Denso. Gross margins swelled to 77% β positively Silicon Valley-esque β and the order book ballooned to Β£112.8 million, enough to make legacy manufacturers weep.
In another small mercy, the EBITDA loss narrowed from Β£50.3 million to Β£22.3 million, a sign that management is at least trimming the sails while navigating choppy economic waters.
Ceres also closed the year with a cash pile of Β£102.5 million β a war chest sufficient to keep the lights on and fund its slow march towards monetising its promising solid oxide technology.
Bosch Pulls the Plug: More Than a Strategic Realignment?
And then there was Bosch, which, to be fair, is a brilliant TV detective series. Sorry, not that Bosh, de Germans.
The February 2025 announcement of the termination of a key licensing agreement with Bosch β delicately described as reflecting Boschβs βstrategic realignmentβ β has done little to calm market nerves. While Ceres insists the financial impact is limited, investors seem unconvinced. Bosch wasnβt just a customer; it was validation. Think Croda and SkinBioTherapeutics (but donβt look at the share price yet). Its exit raises questions about adoption timelines, technological integration, and, crucially, whether Ceres can convince other industrial partners not to quietly follow suit.
Strategic Vision: Global Reach, Uncertain Traction
Management remains relentlessly upbeat. CEO Phil Caldwell dubbed 2024 a βrecord year,β lauding the companyβs βbest-in-class technologyβ and its gallant march into Asia, with efforts underway in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and India. The pitch? Decarbonise data centres and industrial hydrogen at scale.
It's a compelling narrative β if you squint. But markets, increasingly allergic to hope-fuelled speculation, are demanding a different kind of proof. After all, there is a lot of bad news about so-called green energy projects, and many of them are being crushed.
Why the Share Price Collapse, Then?
Letβs call it a combination of bad timing and high expectations:
The Bosch Exit: Confidence-shaking, even if financially neutral on paper. Investors donβt buy a fuel cell company because itβs good with spreadsheets β they buy it for partnerships and pipeline.
Cautious Guidance: The companyβs suggestion that 2025 revenues will be flat versus 2024 β hardly the stuff of green tech fairytales β was enough to kill the buzz from last yearβs surge.
Sector Malaise: The broader clean energy sector is riddled with bodies, but think hideous wind and solar farms. Cost-heavy, capex-hungry, and stuck between subsidy cycles and rising rates, itβs not a market for the faint-hearted.
Valuation Gravity: At its 2021 highs, Ceres was priced for perfection. Reality β especially in a post-Bosch world β has arrived with sharp elbows. We waited and waited, and we still fell through the trapdoor.
Wrong Tag: Ceres might be unfairly tagged in the same bracket as hideous wind and solar farms.
Where Now for Ceres?
For long-suffering shareholders, the question is whether the companyβs technology and licensing model can finally start delivering sustained, cash-generative growth. The foundations are there: the IP, the partners (those who remain), and a growing list of pilot projects in strategically important sectors.
But in a market where hope is no longer a strategy, Ceres must do more than talk up tomorrow. It must show that its technology can scale, that new industrial partners can be landed β and that its cash wonβt just be spent keeping the story alive.
Until then, the share price remains a ghost of its former self β and a warning to those who confuse vision with execution.
Before we run the rule over the Technical analysis and try to provide some guidance.
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Technical Analysis: Chart Overview: The Long Slide into Obscurity
As at Close: 65.85p (-7.97%) | Market Cap: ~Β£130m | Sector: Alternative Energy
Price Action & Trend Analysis
Persistent Downtrend: The stock remains in a well-defined bearish trend, unable to break above resistance zones.
50-Day Moving Average (Red Line): Currently sitting at 113.47p, far above the price actionβconfirming the downtrendβs strength.
Support & Resistance Levels:
Immediate support at ~62p (recent lows). A breakdown below this could trigger a retest of 50p, a level last seen pre-2020.
Near-term resistance at 72pβunless price breaks above this with strong volume, any rally is likely just a short-lived bounce.
The psychological barrier at 100pβmajor resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to shift sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index, 14-day)
Current RSI: 32 (hovering near oversold territory).
RSI has been below 50 for months, reinforcing weak momentum.
If RSI drops below 30, we may see a short-term relief bounceβbut these have been swiftly sold off in previous attempts.
Momentum Indicator (14-day)
Current Reading: -4 (still negative, indicating a lack of buying pressure).
The trend in momentum remains bearish, suggesting that any rebounds may be temporary unless a fundamental catalyst emerges.
MACD (12,26,9) β Bearish Confirmation
MACD Line (-17) well below the Signal Line, confirming strong bearish momentum.
Histogram is slightly flattening, but no clear sign of bullish crossover yetβmeaning downside pressure remains dominant.
Volume Analysis β No Signs of Accumulation
Recent trading volume spiked on down days, showing distribution rather than accumulation.
Lack of strong green volume bars suggests institutional investors are not stepping in to support the price.
Smart Money Signals: FIB - The Old Duffersβ Preferred TA
Here's where we follow the breadcrumbs:
Institutional Activity: Limited fresh buying visible in recent filings. The large holders (Baillie Gifford, IP Group et al.) appear to be holding rather than adding. No buying surge suggests institutions are still in wait-and-see mode.
Insider Activity: No meaningful insider buying reported. A lack of conviction from the C-suite often speaks volumes.
Retail Flow: Based on volume patterns, retail punters may still be drip-feeding into weakness, but thereβs no sign of a Robinhood-style rebellion here.
In short: The smart money isnβt sniffing around just yet. No front-running, no volume spikes, no momentum traders coming in off the sidelines. Until we see a shift in volume profile, any rally looks like a sucker's bounce.
π Verdict: Market Still Says βProve It!β
Bearish structure remains intact. The inability to reclaim the 72p resistance or 50-day MA suggests continued weakness.
Oversold, but not convincingly bouncing. RSI at 32 means we could see a short-term bounce, but until volume confirms accumulation, any rally is likely to fade.
Trend remains down. MACD, momentum, and moving averages all reinforce the selling pressure.
π» Likely Next Move?
π Break below 62p β test of 50p, with further downside risk if broader market sentiment remains weak.
π Reclaim 72p+ β potential relief rally to 93p (Fib 23.6%), but only if buying volume surges.
Final Thought: Falling Knife or Buying Opportunity?
Fundamentally, Ceres technology is solid and does have a future; there is little doubt as far as we and the industry are concerned. However, it is a matter of how long the company can remain solvent or whether investors remain solvent or sane.
Ceresβs share price is being choked by its own former promise. The technicals paint a grim picture: a persistent downtrend, limited support, and no meaningful signals that institutional investors are positioning for a recovery.
In the absence of a re-rating catalyst β think of a new industrial partnership, government subsidy, or a surprise acquisition β the path of least resistance remains down or sideways. Any short-term rally must be treated with scepticism unless accompanied by high conviction volume and a breakout from the long-term channel.
Without a clear fundamental catalyst, this remains a traderβs stock, not an investorβs stock. The risk remains skewed to the downside until the price reclaims at least 72p with volume confirmation.
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