Bearcast Banter: A Gentle Duel Over ProBiotix and SkinBioBioTherapeutics
Of Lobsterpots and Bearcasts: My Weekend Skirmish with Tom Winnifrith
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By Elric the Lemming Langton | 31 March 2025
Mike Caine and Alex have a financial interest in OptiBiotix Health, SkinBioTherapeutics, and ProBiotix Health, and I have a financial interest in SkinBioTherapeutics. Mike has increased his holding in OptiBiotix, and I have increased my holding in SkinBioTherapeutics.
It would appear I’ve taken up residence in the mind of Tom Winnifrith over the weekend – rent-free, no less. There’s limp competition in this bungalow, of course. Evidently compelled, he found space in not one, but two of his bearcasts during the week, as well as used me as a prop to support OptiBiotix over the weekend offerings to shine a spotlight on yours truly. A gesture I'm sure is meant with affection, though – alas – the familiar trend continues: quotes snipped of context and comments selectively interpreted. Still, I’m flattered. There’s a certain charm in becoming a recurring subplot in Tom’s soap opera/drama.
In one particularly left-field turn, Tom lifted a brief exchange between Mike Caine and me, aka PJ1 from the ADVFN Guild – context once again conveniently cropped. PJ1 posted was not included for context:
“Elrico. On a serious note I think the figures from SlimBiome are just starting to show some promise. Whilst I remain invested mainly for SweetBiotix, there is a safety net from SlimBiome materialising. The shares are certainly not expensive based on the financials.”
Tom's headline on 29 March, The Sinner repenteth, the Lemming says Optibiotix worth up to 47.5p a share.
Theatrical open: Hitherto a seller of Optibiotix (OPTI) and a critic of it in many ways, it seems that one sinner, my good pal the Lemming, has repented. He has posted on a Bulletin Board:
He then went on to quote my post:
PJ, I agree 100% that SlimBiome is gaining traction. Both Nuri and Morepen hold a great deal of hope, especially if they reach their reported targets. Moreover, at 17p, OPTI I'm prepared to concede remain undervalued, even with its SBTX stake reduced to 10%. The implied fair value ranges from 41p P/S to 47.5p P/E, offering a 140–180% upside. Sentiment is what it is. The market undervalues both the core business’s growth potential and the worth of its stakes in PBX and SBTX, particularly due to the historical sell-downs of SBTX. I came close to buying today. I pace around, juggling thoughts in my head. I didn't. Instead, I added to my 47K shares in SBTX via my SIPP. I think I may have a mental block due to the ‘competitive tension’ back in 2017.
And, in what I assume was meant as a compliment (and I’ll take it as such), Tom concludes:
It strikes me that if his assumptions about SkinBioTherapeutics are correct – and he is the self-proclaimed world's greatest living expert on that matter – then the see-through valuation of OptiBiotix would be far higher. We shall see. One welcomes his repentance either way.
I felt a warm glow ooze over me, as if I had stepped out of the shade into the radiant sunshine.
So, just to tally the score here, I believe I’m right on two fronts – and it’s rather pleasing to have the acknowledgment.
First, Tom tacitly agrees that my assumptions regarding SkinBioTherapeutics are credible – quite possibly correct. Second, and with no small amount of amusement, I note that he concedes I may well be more competent than him when it comes to SkinBioTherapeutics. To be factual, I have never proclaimed to be the world's greatest living expert on SkinBioTherapeutics or anything else; in fact, Tom has given me this accolade. A welcome shift, perhaps driven by the number of occasions I’ve had to step in to course-correct certain errors, misquotes, and exuberant assumptions on his part. You all know I am always happy to help. I’m such a nice guy.
Still, credit where it's due. I'm grateful for the ongoing attention and even more so for the subtle nods of recognition. Whether or not Tom considers it a "repentance", I’d say it’s more a matter of objectivity: ProBiotix and OptiBiotix are undeniably cheap, and the data – when not taken out of context – tends to support that view. Even so, Tom conveniently ignores I added to my position at SkinBioTherapeutics, not OptiBiotix.
But context, as ever, remains a luxury in short supply.
On to the Bearcast posted on 30 March 2025, he essentially features little old me in the context: “Lemming is wrong on Probiotix.”
Tom kindly featured me in his Sunday Bearcast, “Lemming is wrong on Probiotix,” where he made the case for ProBiotix being cheap and undervalued and pushed back on my view that it should come off the AQSE lobster pot. Tom makes the case for AQSE being considerably cheaper than an AIM listing when you do a like-for-like comparison on professional and listing fees amounting to around £200k pa.
However, in his usual cavalier style, Tom overlooked the facts and context. Tom overlooked the first – and arguably most significant – part of the original quote in his assertion that I am wrong and mistaken about ProBiotix. The context was quite clear: I stated I'd consider buying back into OptiBiotix under two conditions (kept deliberately simple to avoid confusion). First – and most importantly – would be announcing a commercial agreement for SweetBiotix. Second, the delisting of ProBiotix from what can only be described as a highly illiquid lobster pot.
In truth, I have little interest in probiotics or SlimBiome and weight management products. I agree that both OptiBiotix and ProBiotix are cheap; however, sentiment and liquidity pose challenges, not to mention the opportunities available with SkinBioTherapeutics, where I control my exposure. In the short term, there should be significant traction that could result in a significant re-rating of SkinBioTherapeutics shares, I do not see with either OptiBiotix or ProBiotix. I could be wrong, but I have made my choice.
Tom moved on to my recent editorial on SkinBioTherapeutics. As he often does, he had been probing me over the weekend before his bearcast.
Encouragingly, he acknowledged that I might be onto something with my thesis.
What was particularly pleasing was his subtle shift in narrative — moving away from the assumption that the company is in urgent need of a fundraise.
It seems Tom initially leaned too heavily on the broker note and was under the impression the £500k defcon had already been paid in January. As a result, there was a noticeable absence of the usual cash and placing angst — a small but satisfying win.
That said, he still can’t resist being a little disrespectful when mentioning Ashman, which I felt warranted a gentle challenge. I remain confident that the M&A strategy will prove itself over time.
My response to Tom:
Turning to SkinBioTherapeutics, and more specifically Bio-Tech Solutions (BTS): I'm willing to concede that Dermatonics might have had a bumper January and February – perhaps Greg called in a few favours to meet his own undefined trigger, linked to the £500k payment due in April, assuming the target is hit. That will be audited, and rightly so. I suspect BTS will also fall under scrutiny, given the entanglement between the two.
Now, as for my hypothesis – which appears to be the origin of your member’s £1m Croda figure – it is exactly that: hypothesis. Speculation. Guesswork. However, I’ve provided a working theory to explain how and why I landed on a figure, while making clear in our discussions that I believe a lower number – closer to £500k – is more realistic. My rationale being that I'm inclined to believe the BTS bottleneck was cleared, and orders were actively being processed through January and February.
Still, I’ve made the case that this mechanism could be used to obscure the Croda money. Again, pure speculation.
As for the broker forecast – that was never going to be updated without them being explicitly informed about the Croda funds, and that was never going to happen. That said, I understand it creates a degree of uncertainty, particularly with a legal contract, the NDA in place until after launch. Like it or not, Croda holds all the cards here, and little SkinBioTherapeutics has no choice but to follow their lead.
We can only speculate on the structure of the NDA, which means you're also guessing when you suggest what can and cannot be disclosed.
Tom responds: so you agree that what ashman describes as accretive is dilutive for that I keep kicking as he deserves it. but we can agree SBTX could be v cheap.
To which I say: Dilutive, yes. Even I cannot argue with the math. Accretive, nature we are on different paths. I am isolating the two acquisitions from the CB and defcon. I am focused on the value added to the group going forward. I have got over my CB meltdown.
Give it a couple of years and I’m fairly certain you’ll come round on the whole CB saga. Once the value starts shining through and the opportunities become impossible to ignore, you’ll mellow—eventually.
Picture it: you, by the fireside, a gentle creak from the rocking chair, a contented smirk playing on your lips as you stroke your favourite goat.
And then it hits you: That fecking lemming... I should’ve offered him a gig!
Hindsight—the only investment strategy that’s always right.
Here endeth the saga that was the week that was - until next time.
I hope you enjoyed the fun because that is how I view these little joustings between Tom and I.
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